Financial sector reforms and monetary policy reforms in Zambia

ABSTRACT The dissertation comprises four chapters focusing on issues concerning policy re-forms and monetary policy in Zambia. Chapter 1 briefly outlines the theoretical foundations for the reforms undertaken in Zambia since the mid 1980s and the process thereof. The main issues addressed were the removal of interest rate and credit controls, exchange rate devaluation and the use of indirect instruments in implementing monetary policy. Monetary policy also began to focus more on stabilisation through bringing the inflation rate down. The review indicates that although the control of inflation is still difficult and figures are still in double digit levels, annual inflation rates have reduced significantly compared to levels achieved in the early 1990s. The nominal exchange rate has been depreciating prompting increased intervention from the central bank. Despite the increase in nominal interest rates, real deposit rates have remained negative. Chapter two analyses the monetary transmission mechanism in Zambia. Vector auto -regressions are estimated for the pre-reform and post-reform periods. Variance decompositions and impulse response functions are examined to see whether there are any changes observed in the monetary transmission mechanism after the reforms. Different systems are estimated in each period using alternate variables as measures of monetary policy shocks. The results show that contractionary monetary policy is followed by a fall in both output and prices. When compared, results from the two estimation periods show that both the responsiveness of prices and output to policy shocks and the magnitude of their forecast error variance decompositions explained by these variables have increased since the reforms. The results also show that the impact lags have reduced. There is evidence of the bank lending channel both before and after the reforms. Of the mechanisms estimated, the exchange rate mechanism seems to be the most important mechanism for transmission of policy shocks to both prices and output during the post-reform period. Chapter three investigates whether monetary aggregates have useful information for predicting inflation other than that provided by inflation itself. Fore-casting experiments are conducted to see whether monetary aggregates and selected financial sector variables are useful in predicting inflation. We perform forecasting experiments and compare the performance of different models. We also estimate an error correction model of inflation. Of the monetary aggregates considered, M2 contains the most information and its growth rate significant in the inflation model. The external sector variables are also important. The results indicate that inflation exhibits a high level of inertia suggesting the presence of implicit indexation and significant inflationary expectations possibly due to past fiscal effects and low policy credibility. Overall, the foreign sector variables seem to be more important for movements in prices than monetary aggregates even in the long run. The importance of the exchange rate to stabilisation policy in Zambia is underscored by the results obtained in chapters 2 and 3. In this paper, we pursue this idea by investigating the effect of central bank intervention on ex-change rates in Zambia. Using a GARCH (1, 1) model of the exchange rate, we simultaneously estimate the effect of cumulative intervention on the mean and variance of the exchange rate. We find that central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market increases the mean but reduces the variance of the exchange rate. The explanation leans towards speculative bandwagons and a 'leaning against the wind' strategy. Although there is no attempt to distinguish through which channel intervention operates, we argue that this is more likely to be a signalling effect rather than a portfolio balance effect. This effect operates mainly through the supply and demand of foreign exchange in the market.monetary policy; financial reforms; zambia

Financial sector reforms and monetary policy reforms in Zambia

ABSTRACT The dissertation comprises four chapters focusing on issues concerning policy re-forms and monetary policy in Zambia. Chapter 1 briefly outlines the theoretical foundations for the reforms undertaken in Zambia since the mid 1980s and the process thereof. The main issues addressed were the removal of interest rate and credit controls, exchange rate devaluation and the use of indirect instruments in implementing monetary policy. Monetary policy also began to focus more on stabilisation through bringing the inflation rate down. The review indicates that although the control of inflation is still difficult and figures are still in double digit levels, annual inflation rates have reduced significantly compared to levels achieved in the early 1990s. The nominal exchange rate has been depreciating prompting increased intervention from the central bank. Despite the increase in nominal interest rates, real deposit rates have remained negative. Chapter two analyses the monetary transmission mechanism in Zambia. Vector auto -regressions are estimated for the pre-reform and post-reform periods. Variance decompositions and impulse response functions are examined to see whether there are any changes observed in the monetary transmission mechanism after the reforms. Different systems are estimated in each period using alternate variables as measures of monetary policy shocks. The results show that contractionary monetary policy is followed by a fall in both output and prices. When compared, results from the two estimation periods show that both the responsiveness of prices and output to policy shocks and the magnitude of their forecast error variance decompositions explained by these variables have increased since the reforms. The results also show that the impact lags have reduced. There is evidence of the bank lending channel both before and after the reforms. Of the mechanisms estimated, the exchange rate mechanism seems to be the most important mechanism for transmission of policy shocks to both prices and output during the post-reform period. Chapter three investigates whether monetary aggregates have useful information for predicting inflation other than that provided by inflation itself. Fore-casting experiments are conducted to see whether monetary aggregates and selected financial sector variables are useful in predicting inflation. We perform forecasting experiments and compare the performance of different models. We also estimate an error correction model of inflation. Of the monetary aggregates considered, M2 contains the most information and its growth rate significant in the inflation model. The external sector variables are also important. The results indicate that inflation exhibits a high level of inertia suggesting the presence of implicit indexation and significant inflationary expectations possibly due to past fiscal effects and low policy credibility. Overall, the foreign sector variables seem to be more important for movements in prices than monetary aggregates even in the long run. The importance of the exchange rate to stabilisation policy in Zambia is underscored by the results obtained in chapters 2 and 3. In this paper, we pursue this idea by investigating the effect of central bank intervention on ex-change rates in Zambia. Using a GARCH (1, 1) model of the exchange rate, we simultaneously estimate the effect of cumulative intervention on the mean and variance of the exchange rate. We find that central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market increases the mean but reduces the variance of the exchange rate. The explanation leans towards speculative bandwagons and a 'leaning against the wind' strategy. Although there is no attempt to distinguish through which channel intervention operates, we argue that this is more likely to be a signalling effect rather than a portfolio balance effect. This effect operates mainly through the supply and demand of foreign exchange in the market

Financial sector reforms and monetary policy reforms in Zambia

ABSTRACT The dissertation comprises four chapters focusing on issues concerning policy re-forms and monetary policy in Zambia. Chapter 1 briefly outlines the theoretical foundations for the reforms undertaken in Zambia since the mid 1980s and the process thereof. The main issues addressed were the removal of interest rate and credit controls, exchange rate devaluation and the use of indirect instruments in implementing monetary policy. Monetary policy also began to focus more on stabilisation through bringing the inflation rate down. The review indicates that although the control of inflation is still difficult and figures are still in double digit levels, annual inflation rates have reduced significantly compared to levels achieved in the early 1990s. The nominal exchange rate has been depreciating prompting increased intervention from the central bank. Despite the increase in nominal interest rates, real deposit rates have remained negative. Chapter two analyses the monetary transmission mechanism in Zambia. Vector auto -regressions are estimated for the pre-reform and post-reform periods. Variance decompositions and impulse response functions are examined to see whether there are any changes observed in the monetary transmission mechanism after the reforms. Different systems are estimated in each period using alternate variables as measures of monetary policy shocks. The results show that contractionary monetary policy is followed by a fall in both output and prices. When compared, results from the two estimation periods show that both the responsiveness of prices and output to policy shocks and the magnitude of their forecast error variance decompositions explained by these variables have increased since the reforms. The results also show that the impact lags have reduced. There is evidence of the bank lending channel both before and after the reforms. Of the mechanisms estimated, the exchange rate mechanism seems to be the most important mechanism for transmission of policy shocks to both prices and output during the post-reform period. Chapter three investigates whether monetary aggregates have useful information for predicting inflation other than that provided by inflation itself. Fore-casting experiments are conducted to see whether monetary aggregates and selected financial sector variables are useful in predicting inflation. We perform forecasting experiments and compare the performance of different models. We also estimate an error correction model of inflation. Of the monetary aggregates considered, M2 contains the most information and its growth rate significant in the inflation model. The external sector variables are also important. The results indicate that inflation exhibits a high level of inertia suggesting the presence of implicit indexation and significant inflationary expectations possibly due to past fiscal effects and low policy credibility. Overall, the foreign sector variables seem to be more important for movements in prices than monetary aggregates even in the long run. The importance of the exchange rate to stabilisation policy in Zambia is underscored by the results obtained in chapters 2 and 3. In this paper, we pursue this idea by investigating the effect of central bank intervention on ex-change rates in Zambia. Using a GARCH (1, 1) model of the exchange rate, we simultaneously estimate the effect of cumulative intervention on the mean and variance of the exchange rate. We find that central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market increases the mean but reduces the variance of the exchange rate. The explanation leans towards speculative bandwagons and a 'leaning against the wind' strategy. Although there is no attempt to distinguish through which channel intervention operates, we argue that this is more likely to be a signalling effect rather than a portfolio balance effect. This effect operates mainly through the supply and demand of foreign exchange in the market

Financial inclusion

Financial inclusion has been noted as a key driver of poverty alleviation and growth. Yet, most of the scholarly work that exists lacks a comprehensive discussion of how the poor interact with financial services and the channels through which such services can affect their livelihoods. This book offers researchers who focus on financial inclusion and African economies a one stop resource for understanding the channels of transmission for financial inclusion as well as an application of these channels through original country specific empirical papers. The book provides a back-to-basics presentation of the transmission of financial services to growth and poverty. This theoretical discussion is complemented by an empirical presentation of the various services used by the poor, with a focus on Africa. Case studies of financial inclusion in six African countries cover a broad range of topics most important to African countries and highlight the unique African setting. These empirical papers provide important learning points. Firstly, hybrid financial institutions such as cooperative financial institutions and financial social entrepreneurs are the best way to increase financial inclusion in Africa. They provide important vehicles to circumventing the restrictive and exclusive bank-based financial markets typical of African economies. Secondly, digital finance is a potent tool in improving financial access and usage in Africa, and its impact on poverty operates through both traditional and nontraditional financial instruments. Thirdly, investment in infrastructure which supports complementary markets is critical and is likely to have a greater effect on credit rationing than direct provision of credit to small businesses

Financial inclusion

Financial inclusion has been noted as a key driver of poverty alleviation and growth. Yet, most of the scholarly work that exists lacks a comprehensive discussion of how the poor interact with financial services and the channels through which such services can affect their livelihoods. This book offers researchers who focus on financial inclusion and African economies a one stop resource for understanding the channels of transmission for financial inclusion as well as an application of these channels through original country specific empirical papers. The book provides a back-to-basics presentation of the transmission of financial services to growth and poverty. This theoretical discussion is complemented by an empirical presentation of the various services used by the poor, with a focus on Africa. Case studies of financial inclusion in six African countries cover a broad range of topics most important to African countries and highlight the unique African setting. These empirical papers provide important learning points. Firstly, hybrid financial institutions such as cooperative financial institutions and financial social entrepreneurs are the best way to increase financial inclusion in Africa. They provide important vehicles to circumventing the restrictive and exclusive bank-based financial markets typical of African economies. Secondly, digital finance is a potent tool in improving financial access and usage in Africa, and its impact on poverty operates through both traditional and nontraditional financial instruments. Thirdly, investment in infrastructure which supports complementary markets is critical and is likely to have a greater effect on credit rationing than direct provision of credit to small businesses

Urban livelihoods under a changing climate : Perspectives on urban agriculture and planning in Lusaka, Zambia.

With rapidly deteriorating national and local economies, many urban dwellers in sub-Saharan Africa are resorting to informal sector activities to ameliorate the current food insecurity that poor households face. Among these activities is urban agriculture, which is used both as a source of basic foodstuffs and also for income generation. In many cities, the growing of food crops is considered as an activity for rural areas, and is therefore, excluded from urban development and planning policy. This state of affairs has traditionally presented major challenges for many small-scale urban farmers to realise their full potential and attain household food security. In recent years, changes in climatic conditions (e.g. drought and flooding), coupled with a lack of policies supporting the activities of the urban poor, have combined to make it difficult for households to adapt to the changing urban environment. Drawing upon recent field-based research in Lusaka, the capital of Zambia, the paper explores the relationships between urban livelihoods and extreme weather events, and evaluates the extent to which changes in climate and urban governance are impacting upon urban agriculture. The paper has wider relevance in the context of evolving strategies for achieving sustainable urban development, poverty reduction and food security in Africa and elsewhere.Peer reviewe